Pew’s postelection ballot of validated voters paints fuller image of Biden’s 2020 win


Total participation within the 2020 election amongst U.S. adults rose 7 factors from 2016 to succeed in 66% final yr. A new analysis of validated voters from Pew Analysis Middle (which offers an even bigger, extra dependable pattern than exit polls) constructed on a number of of the 2020 tendencies which have already been reported. Right here’re a number of the key takeaways:

New 2020 voters 

One in 4 voters in 2020, or 25%, had not voted in 2016. About 6% of these new 2020 voters turned out in 2018, spiking participation in that midterm election. And voters who turned out in 2018 after skipping the 2016 presidential election have been about twice as more likely to again Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020.

However the 19% of recent voters who got here out in 2020 after skipping each 2016 and the midterms divided up virtually evenly amongst Biden and Trump, 49%-47%. Nevertheless, what was most notable about that group of recent 2020 voters was the age disparity, writes Pew:

Amongst these underneath age 30 who voted in 2020 however not in both of the 2 earlier elections, Biden led 59% to 33%, whereas Trump gained amongst new or irregular voters ages 30 and older by 55% to 42%. Youthful voters additionally made up an outsize share of those voters: These underneath age 30 made up 38% of recent or irregular 2020 voters, although they represented simply 15% of all 2020 voters.

Third get together

Between 2016 and 2020, the citizens apparently received the memo that rolling the cube on a third-party candidate towards Trump was successfully rolling the cube on democracy.

Whereas 6% of 2016 voters solid a poll for considered one of a number of third-party candidates, simply 2% of the citizens voted third get together in 2020.

Total, third-party 2016 voters who turned out in 2020 voted 53%-36% for Biden over Trump, with 10% choosing a third-party candidate.

Suburban voters

Biden made a strong nine-point acquire with suburban voters, successful 54% of their vote in comparison with Hillary Clinton’s 45% share.

This shift was additionally seen amongst White voters: Trump narrowly gained White suburban voters by 4 factors in 2020 (51%-47%); he carried this group by 16 factors in 2016 (54%-38%).

Latino voters

Whereas Biden nonetheless gained a 59% majority of Latino voters, Trump made double-digit good points among the many demographic, successful 38% of them. In 2016, Clinton carried Latino voters 66%-28%.

One noteworthy characteristic of the 2020 election was the vast schooling hole amongst Hispanic voters. In 2020, Biden gained college-educated Hispanic voters 69% to 30%. On the identical time, Biden’s benefit over Trump amongst Hispanic voters who didn’t have a university diploma was far narrower (55% to 41%).  

That is seemingly one purpose that Democrats did so properly with Latino voters in 2018, successful them 72%-25%, in accordance with Pew. The upper one’s schooling degree, the extra seemingly one is to vote in a midterm election. 

Males vs. ladies

In 2016, Trump gained males by 11 factors, however in 2020 they cut up virtually even between Trump and Biden, 50%-48%, respectively. Ladies stayed roughly as loyal to Democrats in each presidential elections, with Biden garnering 55% to Clinton’s 54%, however Trump elevated his share of the feminine vote by 5 factors in 2020 in comparison with 2016, 44%-39%.

As has been beforehand reported, Biden made good points amongst white males whereas Trump elevated his exhibiting amongst white ladies.

In 2016, Trump gained White males by 30 factors (62% to 32%). That hole narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 (57% to 40%). White ladies, a bunch typically categorized as swing voters and who broke almost evenly in 2016 (47% for Trump to 45% for Clinton), favored him in 2020 (53% to 46%).

So in 2016, Trump gained a plurality of white ladies, however in 2020 he gained a slim majority. Trump gained a majority of white males in each cycles, however Biden trimmed Trump’s margins in 2020 by almost half. Total, Trump’s losses amongst white males and good points amongst white ladies decreased the gender hole amongst white voters.

White noncollege voters

Biden gained 5 factors amongst white voters with just some faculty or much less, successful 33% to Clinton’s 28%, whereas Trump’s numbers stayed about the identical at 65% in 2020 versus 64% in 2015.